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10/13/2015  |   10:00 AM - 10:45 AM   |  Atlantic II

Why Are Estimates Always Wrong: Estimation Bias and Strategic Misestimation

The biggest source of estimation error usually comes from people, either by accident or strategically. This is a disaster because viable estimates are core to project success as well as ROI determination and other decision making. Most people don’t know how to estimate. Those who estimate are often optimistic, full of unintentional bias and sometimes strategically mis-estimating. This paper discusses the issues of estimation bias and strategic mis-estimation as well as how to mitigate these issues.

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Dan Galorath (Primary Presenter,Author), Galorath Incorporated , ktimko@galorath.com;
Mr. Galorath has been involved with engineering, estimating and analysis for 40 years. Under his leadership Galorath Incorporated, the developed SEER cost, schedule, risk applications, methods, and training for software, hardware, electronics & systems, Information Technology, and Manufacturing. His widely read blog, Dan Galorath on estimating, covers estimation, planning, measurement, control and risk analysis. He has received lifetime achievement awards from SCEA and ISPA.

2013 Sponsors: IEEE and IEEE Computer Society