The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provides a variety of useful products and services related to decision support during times of drought, but does not directly forecast drought conditions over the Colorado River and Eastern Great Basins. The CBRFC has a broad range of stakeholders that consider drought from a spectrum of drought regimes (i.e. meteorologic, agricultural, and hydrologic) that consider changes in hydrology both spatially and temporally. The CBRFC uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (Sac-SMA), a calibrated and lumped parameter conceptual model that simulates soil water states over shallow and deep zones. Snow-17 is coupled with Sac-SMA to model mean basin snow states and fluxes. The relative quantity of soil water and snow within the model reflects the current state of the hydrologic system that affects streamflow and forecasted snowmelt-driven runoff. The modeling system can forecast the magnitude of stream flows in the near term and seasonal reservoir conditions that are important to decision makers considering the impacts of various drought regimes. In addition, the CBRFC calculates 30 year normals for basin precipitation, temperature, snowpack, and runoff, which allows for a comparison of moving averages over time. The CBRFC further partners with local and regional drought assessment teams to provide information to enable decision makers to take action to mitigate drought impacts.
Patrick Kormos
Patrick Kormos is a senior hydrologist at the National Weather Service's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center in Salt Lake City. He focuses on watershed hydrology, snow science, and snow modeling. He received his Bachelor of Science in Geology from Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania in 2002. He received his Ph.D. and Master of Science degrees from Boise State University, and had postdoc appointments at the National Forest Service's Rocky Mountain Research Station and Agricultural Research Service's Northwest Watershed Research Center.